Off-plan surge anchors Dubai realty as Q1 deals top 44,000

Dubai’s residential real estate market maintained steady momentum in the first quarter of 2026, recording more than 44,000 transactions as strong off-plan demand continued to offset a slowdown in ready-home activity amid regional geopolitical uncertainty.

According to Cavendish Maxwell, the emirate registered 44,100 residential sales between January and March, marking a 4.2 per cent increase compared with the same period last year. The performance underscores the structural strength of Dubai’s housing sector, which continues to benefit from investor inflows, population growth and expanding development pipelines.

Off-plan properties dominated market activity, accounting for 73 per cent of all transactions during the quarter and posting a 10.3 per cent year-on-year increase. By contrast, ready-property sales declined 9.2 per cent, reflecting tighter inventory availability in established communities and a shift in investor preference towards developer-led launches with flexible payment plans.

“While March was the softest month of the quarter with 12,700 transactions – down 10.5 per cent compared to March 2025 – it is too early to confirm that the dip is directly related to regional tensions,” said Ronan Arthur, director and head of residential valuation at Cavendish Maxwell.

“Property sales data typically takes several weeks to be reflected in official statistics, so March’s figures are a mix of deals signed before and after the conflict began. Q2’s statistics, which will be available in the coming months, will give a much clearer picture of market direction,” he said.

Ready-home transactions declined sharply in March, falling 35 per cent year-on-year, while off-plan activity remained broadly stable with a marginal 0.6 per cent increase, highlighting continued buyer confidence in future supply.

Market analysts say the sustained strength of the off-plan segment reflects deeper structural demand drivers rather than short-term speculative activity.

Faisal Durrani, partner and head of Middle East research at Knight Frank, said in the consultancy’s Destination Dubai research that international buyers continue to view the emirate as a preferred investment hub due to its lifestyle appeal, tax efficiency and long-term capital appreciation prospects.

Separately, CBRE noted in its latest UAE residential market review that Dubai’s population expansion and sustained corporate relocations remain key drivers of housing demand across both ownership and rental segments. Taimur Khan, head of research for the Middle East and Africa at CBRE, has highlighted that strong inward migration continues to support absorption levels despite rising supply pipelines.

Official data from Dubai Land Department also points to continued investor confidence, with transaction values remaining historically elevated and new project launches maintaining strong take-up rates across emerging growth corridors such as Dubai South, Dubailand and Dubai Creek Harbour.

The market’s resilience is being reinforced by broader economic fundamentals, including the UAE’s expanding non-oil economy, pro-investor residency policies such as the Golden Visa programme, and continued infrastructure investment aligned with long-term urban expansion plans.

Dubai’s position as a global safe-haven destination for capital and talent has further strengthened its appeal among high-net-worth individuals and international investors seeking portfolio diversification. Knight Frank estimates that the UAE remains one of the world’s leading destinations for millionaire migration, a trend that continues to underpin demand for residential property.

While the moderation in ready-home transactions suggests a degree of short-term caution among buyers, analysts expect overall activity levels to remain robust through 2026 as new launches continue to attract both end-users and overseas investors.

With off-plan sales continuing to anchor market performance and structural demand drivers firmly intact, Dubai’s residential sector appears well positioned to sustain growth momentum despite regional volatility, realty analysts said.

This article was originally published in Khaleej Times.