Property Monitor
23 January 2020

Retire in the UAE?

How easy it is to retire in the UAE? Easier as of this year, is the simple answer. There are now estimated to be almost three million expatriates living and working in Dubai alone[1]. An equal number are to be found in the other emirates and a growing number of those are approaching retirement age. Not all of them, by […]
25 September 2019

Interest rates, lending and the real estate market

What has happened Responding swiftly to the cut in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve, the UAE central bank followed suit in September this year with a reduction of 25 basis points to 2.25%. This is far from a historic low: interest rates in the UAE averaged 1.43% from 2007 until 2019, reaching an all-time high of 4.75% in […]
20 August 2019

Robots, Buildings and Investors: Corporate valuation for developers in the new era for real estate

Business valuation has always relied on the triangulation between three different methodologies: discounted cashflow (DCF), comparable analysis, and some form of dividend valuation approach.
30 July 2019

Methodologies for forecasting the UAE real estate market

The importance of forecasts Every well-planned real estate investment decision is underpinned by a series of market and site-specific forecasts. For a construction project, the most important are almost inevitably the projected sales price and schedule, and construction costs, whilst for an investment, it is future rents, eventual sales price, yields, and most probably, financial variables such as interest rates. […]
30 June 2019

The long-run view: demographic trends in the UAE

Real estate markets and demographics What drives real estate prices – sheer numbers or economic weight? Intuitively, all other things being equal, consistently higher rates of growth of resident population in a region or country will drive up real estate prices by comparison to its neighbours and competitors. The IMF once even advanced a rule that a 0.25% rise in […]
10 June 2019

The vital importance of market data for real estate market stakeholders

Effective market research, the lynchpin of successful real estate development and investment, is impossible without reliable data; without it, developers and investors face significantly higher risks.
30 April 2019

Real estate markets and stock markets: two stories, or just one?

Why does it matter? Real estate indices generally exhibit a much smoother and less volatile evolution than listed real estate return performance. This is explained by three data measurement issues: the impact of property valuations rather than actual transactions, the aggregation bias of combining results over time, and the effect of financial leverage in listed entities which increases the volatility […]
28 March 2019

Rise of the New Sectoralism

New sectoralism implies that the traditional real estate sectors, including residential and industrial, are no longer fit for purpose in the majority of international markets.
6 March 2019

Gulf Real Estate: Year in Prospect

Healthy macroeconomics: What ought to distinguish an economic from a purely market perspective on real estate is as close a focus as possible on why market variables are performing the way they are, as a guide to how much they are likely to change in the future. The starting point, as ever, is macroeconomics. Studies in OECD countries, which now date back […]
31 January 2019

The Gulf Real Estate Year in Review

A market in perspective: Economists are a sober lot, generally. Facts alone do not satisfy us. At a macro-economic level, our interests lie predominantly in the relationships between economic indicators, market performance and policy-based decision-making. We are generally wary of speculation, preferring to base our analysis on the links between economic data wherever possible. Identifying the reasons behind the performance […]

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