Cavendish Maxwell Report: Dubai off-plan residential sales surge to a record 42,000

Dubai, UAE – Off-plan sales in Dubai’s residential property sector have hit another new record, with 42,000 transactions between July and September 2025, says leading real estate advisory and property consultancy, Cavendish Maxwell.

Off-plan properties accounted for 76% of all residential sales in Q3, with transactions up almost 24% on the same period last year, the company said. Total residential sales values hit AED138 billion – up 18% on Q3 2024 – with off-plan sales at AED103.8 billion, according to Cavendish Maxwell’s latest Dubai Residential Market Performance Report.

Ronan Arthur, Director, Head of Residential Valuation, Cavendish Maxwell, said: “Dubai’s off-plan sector continues to perform strongly and dominate the residential real estate market, despite a moderation in project launches. After a surge in launches during the first half of the year, activity slowed in Q3 to 144 new projects, with 32,700 units. In Q2, we saw 192 projects with 53,300 units. So far this year, over 500 residential projects have been launched, delivering some 138,200 units.”

Around 9,400 new homes were delivered in Q3 – below the initial projection of 22,800 units – with total deliveries in the first nine months reaching 28,100, an increase of 6% year-on-year.

Cavendish Maxwell’s research also shows that construction cycles shortened significantly to 880 days in 2025, compared to 1,340 days two years ago as developers accelerate project delivery timelines to trigger post-handover payments. Another 48,200 units are set for delivery in Q4 this year, and 366,000 more through to 2028. Most will come to market in 2026 and 2027.

The report also shows:

• Sales prices have risen again – up more than 16% year-on-year and 4.5% compared to Q2
• Rental rates climbed by more than 10% year-on-year and 6% compared to Q2, but the pace of annual growth has softened
• 9 in 10 (89%) of off-plan sales were for apartments; ready apartments accounted for 79%
• Jumeirah Village Circle and Business Bay topped the sales charts for both off-plan and ready sales
• Ultra-luxury properties – AED50 million and above – recorded big growth, with 65 sales valued at AED5.9 billion
• Mortgage transactions rose 12.4%, with 11,500 loans secured

Ronan Arthur added: “Dubai’s residential market is entering a more mature phase. Off-plan sales are expected to stay strong in the near term if new launches continue, while the ready segment and rental market could show more measured activity. Market fundamentals remain robust, supported by sustained economic growth, an ever-growing population and sustained investor confidence. As the market continues to mature, several key trends are likely to shape performance in Q4 and throughout 2026. We expect to see more banks offering finance against under-construction properties from specific approved developers, and continued growth in the super prime luxury sector as more high net worth individuals choose to invest in Dubai. Notable soon-to-be launched next phase master developments are Palm Jebel Ali, Jumeirah Golf Estates 2 and Dubai Islands, with absorption rates expected to remain high.”

Sales price trends

Residential property prices climbed 4.5% against Q2, and by over 16% compared to Q3 2024, driven by strong market activity and robust demand among end-users and local and international investors. Dubai Land Department’s First Time Home Buyer Programme, launched in July, makes property purchases easier, in turn encouraging greater home ownership. In addition, developers are stimulating sales through attractive post-handover payment plans and other incentives.

Price growth varied across the city: Discovery Gardens, Dubai Marina, Arabian Ranches 2 and Dubai Hills all recorded double-digit annual increases, while other areas saw more moderate growth.

Rental rates and yields

Annual rental rates rose 10.3% year-on-year and 6% compared to Q2, but the pace of growth has moderated compared to 2024, when increases constantly ranged from 12% to 16%. It has now eased to around 10% with new supply in the market, giving tenants better negotiation power. The Smart Rental Index is also playing a key role by helping to prevent unfair rent hikes.

Average rental yields stood at 7.1% for apartments and 4.9% for villas and townhouses in Q3 – slightly down on year-on-year but still outperforming many major global markets. Apartment rental yields were highest in Dubai Investments Park (9.6%), International City (8.9%), and Downtown Jebel Ali (8.7%). Topping the charts for villa and townhouses were Dubai Industrial City (6.4%), Damac Hills 2 (5.9%) and International City (5.8%).

More than 151,000 rental contracts were registered between July and September, with renewals dominating at 62%. Rental contracts rose 1.7% year-on-year.

Apartments versus villas and townhouses

Apartments continue to dominate the sales market by a huge margin, accounting for almost 90% of off-plan transactions – understandable given that nearly 89% of projects launched this year were for apartments. In the secondary market, apartments took a 79.2% share.

The top five areas for off-plan apartment sales were Jumeirah Village Circle, Business Bay, Dubai Science Park, DAMAC Riverside and Dubai Residence Complex. In the ready apartment sector, the top spots were Jumeirah Village Circle, Business Bay, Dubai Marina, Downtown Dubai and International City.

Meanwhile, villas and townhouses saw the highest sales in The Wilds, DAMAC Islands, Grand Polo Club and Resort, Dubai South and The Valley.

The lowdown on luxury

Sales in Dubai’s ultra-luxury segment – properties costing AED50 million or more – grew significantly year-on-year. In Q3, saw AED6.9 billion worth of purchases across 65 transactions, representing a hike of 45% in values and 25% in volumes.

The luxury sector, covering homes worth between AED20 million and AED50 million, saw 430 transactions in Q3, an increase of 2.4% year-on-year. However, the number of transactions was down 50% against Q2 because of a slowdown in off-plan luxury activity.

While the luxury sector accounted for less than 1% of total market transactions, it contributed 11.6% to overall transaction values, highlighting its outsized contribution to the market. Demand for luxury homes is expected to remain resilient.

Mortgage movement

Around 11,500 mortgage transactions were recorded in Q3, over 12% more than in the same period last year, but 2% down on Q2. The decline was driven by reduced mortgage activity in the apartment segment. By contrast, loans for townhouses and villas climbed 13.7% and 6.4% respectively. Following September’s interest rate cut, and more reductions expected, mortgage activity is expected to strengthen.

Project delivery and pipeline

Some 9,400 units were completed in Q3, bringing the total number of deliveries this year to 22,800 – up 6% on 2024 levels. Most completions were in Jumeirah Village Circle, Mohammed Bin Rashed City, Business Bay, Damac Hills and Tilal Al Ghaf, which, combined, accounted for more than 41% of all deliveries.

New launches in Q3 amounted to 32,700 units, comprising 30,800 apartments, 1,100 villas and 800 townhouses. In the first nine months of the year, 122,000 apartments were launched – up from 93,000 in the same period last year, underlining developers’ continued focus on apartments, driven by strong demand from investors, young professionals and smaller households – and by the operational advantages they offer.

42,000 units are on the way in Q4 this year and another 366,000 by 2028, with phased delivery largely focused on 2026 and 2027.

This article was originally published in Emirates Reporter.